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Thanksgiving Online Sales Expected to Surge 6% to $8.6 Billion

People shop ahead of Black Friday during Thanksgiving Day, in New York City, U.S., November 27, 2025. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

Online sales during the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States are projected to increase by 6 percent compared to last year, reaching a total of $8.6 billion, according to data released by Salesforce. This rise in online spending reflects consumers’ enthusiasm for significant discounts offered by retailers, even as they navigate economic challenges stemming from tariffs imposed on imported goods.

As of 2 p.m. ET (1900 GMT) on Thanksgiving Day, spending had already climbed to $2.6 billion, marking a 5.8 percent increase from the same time in 2022. This early surge indicates strong consumer engagement as the holiday shopping season officially kicks off. Thanksgiving and the subsequent Black Friday, which falls on November 25, 2023, are crucial for retailers, often accounting for approximately one-third of their annual sales and profits.

Economic Context and Consumer Behavior

This year’s shopping season opens amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainty, largely influenced by the trade policies of President Donald Trump. The administration’s tariffs have resulted in increased costs for both retailers and consumers, which could potentially affect purchasing decisions. Despite these challenges, the willingness of shoppers to spend suggests a robust appetite for bargains.

Retailers are leveraging steep discounts to entice consumers, capitalizing on the tradition of Thanksgiving shopping. The data shows that consumers are eager to take advantage of these offers, indicating a possible optimism that could carry through the holiday season, despite the looming economic concerns.

Additionally, the shift toward online shopping continues to reshape the retail landscape. Many consumers prefer the convenience of shopping from home, which has become increasingly prominent in recent years. As online sales grow, retailers are investing heavily in their digital platforms to enhance the customer experience and streamline logistics to meet demand.

Looking Ahead to Black Friday

As Black Friday approaches, analysts will be closely watching how the trends observed on Thanksgiving translate into the following day’s sales. Traditionally, Black Friday marks one of the busiest shopping days of the year, and this year is expected to follow suit. Retail experts predict that the combination of deep discounts and consumer enthusiasm could lead to a record-breaking shopping weekend.

Retailers are prepared for this surge, having anticipated consumer behavior and stockpiled inventory accordingly. The performance of Thanksgiving sales is often seen as an indicator of overall holiday spending trends, making it a crucial measure for retailers as they navigate the complexities of the current economic environment.

In summary, Thanksgiving 2023 is poised to see a notable increase in online sales, demonstrating consumer resilience in the face of economic pressures. With $8.6 billion expected in sales, the holiday shopping season is off to a promising start, setting the stage for what may unfold in the days to come.

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