The upcoming NFL season presents a significant challenge for Circa Sports, which is facing a potential $7.5 million overlay in its popular handicapping contests. As of September 6, 2023, the sportsbook is required to supplement its prize pool beyond the entry fees collected from participants, which are set at $1,000 each. Despite an encouraging trend in entries for both the Circa Survivor and Circa Million VII contests, the numbers still fall short of expectations.
The Circa Survivor contest, known for its straightforward format where participants select one NFL winner each week without point spreads, is currently tracking to exceed last year’s record prize pool of $14.2 million. On Monday morning, there were 10,223 entries, but the contest needs a total of 15,000 entries to reach its guaranteed prize money target of $15 million.
According to Mike Palm, Vice President of Operations for Circa, D Las Vegas, and Golden Gate, sign-ups have been impressive, with entries running 40 percent ahead of the previous year’s pace, projecting a potential prize pool of $20 million. However, he cautioned that maintaining this momentum could be challenging. Last year, at the same time, there were 7,400 entries, indicating a current increase of just over 2,800 entries, or 38 percent. If this trend continues, the prize pool might reach approximately $19.6 million.
The contest consists of 20 legs, covering NFL Weeks 1 through 18, including Thanksgiving and Christmas games. Over the past four years, Circa has paid out around $4 million to cover contest overlays, including $183,000 last year to meet the $6 million guarantee for the Million contest, which is slightly ahead of last year’s pace with 3,235 entries.
The Million contest, where entrants make five weekly NFL picks against the spread, needs 6,000 entries to meet its guarantee. Palm estimated that if the current trend continues, they will likely end up close to 5,970 entries, indicating they might just meet the target.
In addition to these contests, Circa recently launched the Grandissimo, a high-stakes version of the Survivor contest with a $100,000 entry fee. This new contest has already surpassed its $1.5 million guarantee with 22 entries, and more participants are expected. Palm noted that several entrants have wired their entry fees but have yet to arrive to officially sign up.
Remarkably, some of the Grandissimo entries have come from individuals who are new to Circa. One notable case involved a businessman from Miami who, while on vacation in Utah, learned about the contest online, flew to Las Vegas to participate, and then returned to his vacation. This highlights the growing interest in Circa’s offerings beyond its traditional customer base.
Meanwhile, other sportsbooks are also seeing activity with their contests. The Westgate SuperBook’s new $500-entry SuperContest College had 745 entries as of Monday morning, generating a prize pool of $372,500. The registration deadline for this contest is 3 p.m. on Friday, with picks needing to be submitted by 5 p.m. the same day.
In addition, there are 460 entries in the $1,500-entry SuperContest, which offers a prize pool of $690,000. The $5,000-entry winner-take-all SuperContest Gold has seen 36 entries, while the $5,000-entry SuperContest Survivor is currently at 56 entries with a prize pool of $280,000.
As the NFL season approaches, enthusiasm for these contests remains high, but Circa Sports will need to attract a significant number of additional entries to avoid the substantial overlay it currently faces. The outcome of these contests will not only determine potential payouts for participants but also the financial health of Circa as it navigates this competitive landscape.
