Good management of aid projects significantly reduces local violence in developing countries, according to a study conducted by Jacob Moscona, an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). The research, which focuses on World Bank initiatives across Africa, sheds light on the complex relationship between international aid and conflict, revealing that effective oversight can decrease the likelihood of violence by as much as 12%.
The study addresses a long-standing debate about the impact of aid on conflict. While some scholars have noted an increase in violence linked to aid projects, others have found the opposite effect. Moscona’s findings indicate that the quality of management plays a crucial role. “Well-managed aid projects can actually reduce conflict, and poorly managed projects increase conflict,” he states.
Key Findings from the Research
To conduct this study, Moscona analyzed World Bank project data from the years 1997 to 2014, utilizing information compiled by AidData, a nonprofit organization focused on the effectiveness of aid. The World Bank’s rigorous evaluations of its projects, which include assessments of project leaders, were pivotal in Moscona’s analysis.
His research highlights the importance of management decisions on the ground. For instance, regular monitoring of food distribution has proven to significantly reduce losses from theft. Innovative tagging methods for resources have also helped ensure that aid reaches intended beneficiaries rather than being misappropriated.
Moscona merged this data with statistics from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), allowing him to assess how the implementation quality of aid projects affects local conflict dynamics. He found that improving the leadership quality from the 25th percentile to the 75th percentile could increase the likelihood of conflict by 15%.
Understanding the Dynamics of Aid and Conflict
The research also indicates that the establishment of aid programs does not typically provoke long-term strategic actions from non-governmental armed groups, such as land grabs or the formation of rebel bases. The likelihood of conflict escalates particularly in areas with recent political violence and when resources, such as food or medical supplies, are at risk of being diverted.
Moscona observed a clear trend regarding the timing of violent incidents in relation to aid. Conflicts often arise once resources begin to flow into communities rather than during the initial establishment of projects. “You really see the conflict start when the money is coming in or when the resources start to flow,” he explains.
Additionally, the research reconciles findings from previous studies that reported mixed outcomes regarding aid and conflict. By demonstrating that variations in management quality can lead to different results, Moscona emphasizes the importance of effective administration in determining the success of aid initiatives.
His paper, titled “The Management of Aid and Conflict in Africa,” is featured in the November 2025 issue of the American Economic Journal: Economic Policy. Moscona aims to shift the narrative surrounding aid, suggesting that enhancing management practices can lead to positive outcomes and mitigate potential negative consequences.
The implications of Moscona’s research extend beyond academic circles, offering actionable insights for institutions like the World Bank and other aid organizations. By prioritizing effective management strategies, the potential effectiveness of aid programs can be significantly improved, fostering a more favorable environment for development and stability in conflict-prone regions.
