Russian forces are on the verge of capturing the eastern Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk, marking a significant symbolic victory after 21 months of conflict. This development follows intensified fighting in the city, which has seen Russian troops successfully infiltrate its boundaries. While the strategic importance of Pokrovsk has diminished, its fall would represent the largest gain for Russia since the capture of Bakhmut in May 2023.
Ukrainian officials have denied claims that their forces in Pokrovsk are surrounded, asserting that active resistance continues. A battalion commander, speaking on condition of anonymity, described the situation as dire, noting, “The situation is difficult, with all types of fighting going on, firefights in urban areas, and shelling with all types of weapons.” Another soldier from the Ukrainian Peaky Blinders drone unit highlighted the overwhelming force of the Russian advance, indicating that drone operators are struggling to keep pace with the rapid movements of Russian troops.
The Symbolism of the Battle for Pokrovsk
The battle for Pokrovsk has evolved beyond a fight for strategic control. According to George Barros, who leads the Russia and Geospatial Intelligence teams at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the city now represents a symbolic target. He stated, “From a battlefield perspective, it doesn’t make sense.” Once a critical supply line for Ukraine due to its road and rail connections, Pokrovsk has lost its operational significance as Russian forces encircled the city over the summer.
Ukrainian forces have adapted by finding alternative supply routes, minimizing the logistical impact of Pokrovsk’s impending fall. The city, which previously housed Ukraine’s last operational coking coal mine, has been largely devastated, with only about 1,200 civilians remaining from a pre-war population of approximately 60,000.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported that Russia has deployed around 170,000 troops to bolster its offensive in the area. Although the city is structurally damaged and its strategic value has waned, its capture would serve as a crucial symbol for Russia amidst a conflict that has largely stagnated.
Implications of Capturing Pokrovsk
The potential takeover of Pokrovsk aligns with President Putin’s broader ambition to secure the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, as well as territories in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. A soldier from Ukraine’s 129th Brigade expressed concerns that once Pokrovsk and the nearby town of Myrnohrad are secured, Russian pressure on neighboring areas like Kostyantynivka will escalate.
Despite the looming threat of withdrawal, Ukrainian forces remain hesitant. The soldier noted, “There has been no order to withdraw although everyone already understands that the fall of Pokrovsk is inevitable.” Previous experiences in Bakhmut and Avdiivka highlighted the risks of delayed retreats, which resulted in significant casualties.
The situation in Pokrovsk underscores the complexities of the current conflict, where symbolic victories can hold substantial weight, even when strategic advantages appear limited. As the battle rages on, the human cost of this conflict continues to mount, with Ukrainian forces facing overwhelming odds in their fight to retain control over a city that has come to symbolize resilience amidst adversity.
