Tensions are rising in the West Bank and along the Egyptian border, as Israel grapples with escalating security threats while engaging in a prolonged conflict in Gaza. The situation, marked by increasing violence and weapons smuggling, poses significant challenges for Israeli authorities, who have been focused on the conflict in Gaza for over 23 months.
In the West Bank, Israeli forces have made strides in countering a low-level insurgency fueled by groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Efforts to curtail these groups’ influence have taken several years, particularly from 2021 to early 2025. Despite these efforts, the ongoing flow of illegal arms, including large quantities of M-4 and M-16 rifles, has allowed insurgent activity to persist. Recent reports indicate a troubling development: terrorist organizations are attempting to construct small rockets, a tactic reminiscent of strategies used in Gaza during the late 1990s and early 2000s.
The nature of the threat is evolving, and attacks have increasingly involved armed groups with multiple attackers. This shift signifies a change in tactics as adversaries seek to outmaneuver Israeli defenses.
Smuggling Threats from the Egyptian Border
Compounding the challenges in the West Bank, the Egyptian border has witnessed a surge in smuggling activities. Recent intelligence suggests that smuggling operations have expanded significantly, employing drones to transport firearms and ammunition. Daily incidents of smuggling have increased, with the full scope of the problem remaining largely unknown. Each thwarted attempt may only represent a fraction of a much larger operation.
Egypt has been focused on negotiating a resolution concerning Gaza and is keen to prevent an influx of displaced Gazans into the Sinai Peninsula. Although Egyptian authorities have deployed additional forces along the border, their primary efforts remain concentrated on Gaza. There is a growing concern that smuggling networks that previously supported Hamas may be redirecting their activities, inadvertently contributing to rising gun violence in Israel.
Most incidents of violence currently affect the Arab community within Israel, but there is a palpable risk that such unrest could escalate further.
Israel has historically prioritized threats from what it describes as the “third circle,” particularly focusing on adversaries like Iran. While precision airstrikes and military preparations have been key components of Israel’s strategy, the ongoing conflict in Gaza has diverted attention and resources away from the threats emerging closer to home.
As Israel continues to engage in military operations in Gaza, the potential for instability along the Egyptian border and within the West Bank highlights the need for vigilant monitoring of these regions. With weapon smuggling networks feeding arms into both the West Bank and Arab communities in Israel, the security landscape remains precarious and demands urgent attention.
