Political analysts are expressing concerns regarding the effectiveness of Congress as the midterm elections approach in 2026. A notable increase in executive orders, particularly by President Donald Trump, has overshadowed a significant decline in legislative activity. Experts suggest that lawmakers are unlikely to take bold actions leading up to the elections, as they tend to be risk-averse in such critical periods.
This year, President Trump has signed a remarkable 225 executive orders, surpassing his total for the first term within just 11 months. In contrast, The Washington Post reported that Congress has set a modern record for the lowest legislative output during the first year of a new presidency, with only 38 bills passed and signed into law by December 19, 2025. Even after Trump signed six additional bills shortly thereafter, the total reached just 44 laws for the year, a stark comparison to the 76 laws signed in his first term and 68 laws in the first year of President Joe Biden‘s presidency.
Political management program director at George Washington University, Todd Belt, noted that the culture of Congress during election years often leads to less legislative activity. He stated, “Nobody wants to do anything too provocative during an election year.” This sentiment is echoed by Casey Burgat, legislative affairs program director at GW, who pointed out that the slim margins in both the House and Senate result in a reluctance to legislate, even with the Republican Party controlling the White House and both chambers.
The internal divisions within the Republican Party further complicate legislative efforts. Different factions within the party often hold varying priorities, which can hinder progress on proposed legislation. As a result, many lawmakers prefer to let President Trump lead through executive orders, allowing them to claim policy victories without taking significant risks.
Looking ahead to the 2026 midterms, Seth McKee, a politics professor at Oklahoma State University, highlighted the challenges Republicans face in presenting their accomplishments to voters. The party’s flagship legislation, the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” lacks widespread public support, causing concern for those in competitive districts. McKee remarked, “If you’re more near the center and you have a district that is in that swing range where it could flip, I don’t know what you tell your voters.”
Democrats, who currently do not hold any major positions in Washington, are poised to use the narrative of a “do-nothing Congress” to their advantage in the upcoming elections. Burgat explained that this tactic has historically been effective for minority parties, although he cautioned that broader economic sentiments and public perceptions of President Trump will likely play a more significant role in voter decision-making.
Historical trends suggest that Democrats could regain control of the House in 2026, as the sitting president’s party has lost seats during midterm elections in eight of the last ten instances over the past 40 years. In the 2018 midterms, Trump’s Republicans lost 40 House seats. Currently, The Cook Political Report identifies only 17 of 435 House seats as toss-ups for the upcoming elections, while just two Senate seats are in a similar situation.
Political experts assert that while Democrats are well-positioned to potentially flip the House, the Senate remains likely to remain in Republican hands, given the favorable map for the party. Despite the low legislative output observed in 2025, they noted that the Republican Party’s major “One Big Beautiful Bill” has consolidated numerous policy initiatives into a single piece of legislation.
Charles Hunt, a politics professor at Boise State University, pointed out that Congress has increasingly turned to omnibus legislation, which can create the appearance of diminished legislative activity despite substantial policy output. He described the current Congress as dysfunctional, highlighting the challenges faced by Speaker of the House Mike Johnson within his caucus. Johnson has to navigate between members with far-right views and those who are more moderate, particularly as the midterms draw closer.
Although President Trump has exerted influence over the legislative branch, Hunt noted that Congress has recently taken steps to reassert its authority, such as votes regarding the Epstein files and efforts to prohibit stock trading by its members. As the current fiscal year progresses, Congress is still tasked with passing spending bills.
Belt anticipates that outside of budget-related matters, Congress will likely refrain from significant policy initiatives in 2026. He mentioned that should the courts limit Trump’s executive powers, there could be some legislative responses to restore those powers. However, issues such as expiring Obamacare subsidies may also compel lawmakers to revisit certain topics in response to public pressure.
In summary, the landscape for Congress leading into the 2026 midterm elections appears complex. With internal party divisions, low legislative output, and a backdrop of executive actions, the path forward for lawmakers remains uncertain as they prepare for a potentially contentious election cycle.
