Democrats are intensifying their focus on the 5th Congressional District in Colorado, traditionally a stronghold for Republicans. U.S. Representative Jeff Crank won this district by a margin of 14 points in 2024, but recent shifts in demographics and voter sentiment have prompted national Democratic leaders to consider a more aggressive strategy for the upcoming elections.
In a notable update, the nonpartisan Cook Political Report has revised its assessment of the district from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.” This change indicates a potentially closer race than previously expected. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) has also included this district in its list of targeted seats, which signals a renewed investment in what has long been considered a safe Republican area.
Polling conducted late last summer revealed that a generic Democratic candidate garnered more support than Crank, although the Democrat did not reach the critical 50% threshold. Historically, the 5th Congressional District has never elected a Democrat, nor has any candidate come within 10 percentage points of winning. In 2024, Crank succeeded former Representative Doug Lamborn after a decisive victory.
Demographic changes in the district, which encompasses much of El Paso County, have begun to reshape the political landscape. According to an analysis by National Public Radio (NPR), Democrats have overperformed in recent elections, gaining an average of nearly 16 percentage points since President Donald Trump took office.
Democratic Candidates Eager to Compete
Three Democratic contenders have emerged, each raising significant funds in their pursuit of the nomination. Jessica Killin, a former U.S. Army captain and chief of staff to former second gentleman Doug Emhoff, has reported over $1.6 million raised for her campaign as of December 31. In contrast, Crank has attracted $1.2 million this election cycle.
The DCCC’s designation of the 5th District as a competitive seat does not automatically translate to financial backing from the national party. However, it does open opportunities for campaign training and increased visibility among donors. For candidates like Killin, this designation is crucial as it provides a sense of validation and national attention.
Killin has leveraged this momentum to criticize Crank, particularly highlighting his alignment with Trump-era policies, such as his recent vote to impose tariffs on Canada. She argued that this connection could alienate moderate voters in the district. Killin noted, “A Democrat can and will defeat Jeff Crank in 2026,” crediting her confidence to ongoing changes in the district and the inadequate representation by Crank.
Another Democratic candidate, Joe Reagan, who narrowly lost the primary in 2024, expressed excitement over the recent developments. He emphasized the importance of focusing on local issues rather than following a national playbook, suggesting that genuine engagement with constituents is key to gaining traction.
Crank’s Campaign Unfazed by New Developments
Despite the increased attention on the race, Crank’s team remains confident in his re-election prospects. Senior advisor Nick Trainer remarked that Crank won his first election decisively and expects similar success in 2026. He noted that Killin’s connections to Washington may not resonate well with local voters.
Political science professor Sara L. Hagedorn from the University of Colorado, Colorado Springs, predicted that while the DCCC’s involvement marks a shift in the district’s competitiveness, significant resources may still be limited following the primary. She cautioned that flipping the district would require more than just national party support, as local voter dynamics play a critical role.
El Paso County has seen a rise in unaffiliated voters, with 52% of active voters choosing not to register with any party. Hagedorn explained that while these voters may not align with a party, they often vote along partisan lines. This complicates the race as campaigns must engage with a less politically engaged electorate.
As the election date approaches, the spotlight on the 5th Congressional District could energize Democratic grassroots efforts. The DCCC’s focus may serve to bolster liberal motivations while placing Republicans on the defensive. Hagedorn concluded that Democrats might be playing a long game, using this opportunity to challenge Crank while strategically positioning themselves for future elections.
As the campaign unfolds, both parties will be closely monitoring the evolving political landscape of Colorado’s 5th Congressional District.
