Chinese President Xi Jinping is delaying an in-person summit with U.S. President Donald Trump, signaling the need for concrete outcomes before agreeing to the high-profile meeting. This anticipated summit would be the first of Trump’s second term and comes at a time when trade tensions between the two countries are particularly fraught.
The White House has expressed optimism regarding the summit, but analysts suggest that Xi is waiting to secure significant concessions from the U.S. before committing. In April, Trump escalated the ongoing trade war by implementing sweeping new tariffs, prompting retaliatory measures from China. As negotiations continue, unresolved issues such as U.S. restrictions on advanced chip exports to China and geopolitical tensions surrounding Taiwan remain contentious.
Negotiations in Sweden
U.S. and Chinese negotiators are set to engage in a third round of talks in Sweden next week. Trump has stated that “the confines of a deal” are in place, but several key topics are still under discussion. Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at the Hudson Institute, noted that the likelihood of a summit hinges on Xi’s strategy to extract as many concessions as possible from the U.S. before finalizing the meeting.
Cronin also emphasized the significance of negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union. He stated, “What China and the United States can each negotiate with the EU will also help inform the China-U.S. trade bargain that will be at the heart of any Xi-Trump summit.” Recently, the White House has secured agreements with Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Indonesia as part of its strategy to strengthen alliances in the region.
China has been keen to exploit divisions between the U.S. and Europe, which have deepened over trade issues and other geopolitical concerns. As the EU grapples with challenges related to state-subsidized Chinese electric vehicles and human rights, analysts believe Beijing sees an opportunity to improve its relations with Europe.
Future Prospects
While U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, during his recent visit to Malaysia, indicated that “the odds are high” for a Trump-Xi summit before the year ends, it remains uncertain what concessions China is willing to offer. Experts, including Rosemary Foot, a professor at the University of Oxford, suggest that Xi is adopting a cautious approach, waiting for the U.S. to present a serious proposal before proceeding.
Foot remarked, “I think that it is to do with China’s more general approach to the Trump administration which is to wait for some intention to offer a serious deliverable from the meeting.”
Trump and Xi last met in 2019 during the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan. As both leaders navigate this complex landscape, the potential summit could have significant implications for international trade and geopolitical dynamics.
