As global birth rates continue to decline, experts emphasize the need for cultural change alongside policy adjustments. At the recent Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell highlighted various economic challenges, including the significant role of societal values in declining fertility. Nobel laureate Claudia Goldin presented findings indicating that understanding the traditional roles of men is crucial in addressing the baby bust.
Many developed nations and some emerging markets are experiencing birth rates that have fallen below the critical level of 2.1, which is necessary for a population to sustain itself. Countries like South Korea, Japan, and China are often in the spotlight, but numerous United Nations member states face similar issues. The implications of these declining birth rates are substantial, affecting economic factors such as prices, government budgets, and social safety nets.
Despite various incentives aimed at encouraging couples to have more children, the results have been disappointing. For instance, Singapore, which is often cited as an economically successful nation, recorded a total fertility rate of just below 1 last year. The choice of whether to have children ultimately rests with individual couples, influenced by factors like the cost of raising children and shifting priorities among potential parents.
Goldin’s research points to a disconnect between men and women regarding family planning. Although women today have greater access to education and professional opportunities than previous generations, this progress alone does not account for the declining birth rates. Instead, Goldin argues that men benefit from preserving traditional roles more than women do. As long as men adhere to these conventions, women may choose to delay or forgo motherhood altogether.
The need for men to demonstrate their commitment as reliable partners and fathers is essential. According to Goldin, “The more men can credibly signal that they will be dependable ‘dads’ and not disappointing ‘duds,’ the higher will be the birthrate.” This insight highlights the importance of aligning expectations among genders to foster family growth.
The challenges presented by an aging society, a direct result of lower fertility rates, are numerous. While technological advancements like artificial intelligence can help address labor shortages, the role of immigration is also critical, albeit politically sensitive. Kazuo Ueda, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, acknowledged that foreign workers, despite comprising only 3% of Japan’s workforce, contributed to over half of its growth from 2023 to 2024.
Unlike the 1970s, when population control was viewed positively, current discussions focus on the implications of a declining population. Chad Jones from Stanford Graduate School of Business raises concerns about potential stagnation in living standards and a reduction in innovative ideas as a result of this demographic shift. According to United Nations projections, the world’s population is expected to peak at approximately 10.3 billion in the 2080s before beginning to decline.
While government policies may struggle to reverse these trends significantly, a cultural reevaluation may be necessary. As societies grapple with the complex interplay of economic, social, and personal factors influencing family size, understanding the role of fathers and shifting cultural norms could be key to addressing the baby bust.
