Morris County, New Jersey, is shaping up to be a pivotal area in the upcoming gubernatorial election, as both major party candidates ramp up their campaigns. Republican nominee Jack Ciattarelli has made a strong push to secure votes in this affluent suburban region, strategically important due to its historical leanings and changing demographics.
During a recent campaign event in Roxbury, Ciattarelli shared a lighthearted exchange with a local resident who expressed her support for his Democratic opponent, Mikie Sherrill, the sitting congresswoman. This interaction illustrates the nuanced political landscape in Morris County, where voter preferences are shifting. “You vote for me. I’ll make sure she stays your congresswoman,” Ciattarelli quipped, eliciting laughter from the crowd.
Located approximately 30 miles west of New York City, Morris County is the second-wealthiest in New Jersey, according to household income surveys. Historically, it has favored Republican candidates, with Ciattarelli winning 55.3% of the vote during his previous campaign. Yet, recent elections have indicated a swing towards Democrats, highlighted by Sherrill’s significant victory in the 2018 congressional race, where she flipped the district by 37 points.
High Turnout and Voter Engagement
The county is notable for its high turnout rates, with 47% participation in the 2021 governor’s election, ranking it fourth in the state. Pat Dennis, president of the political action committee American Bridge 21st Century, emphasized the presence of “high-propensity voters” in Morris County, a demographic that consistently participates in elections regardless of the year.
Ciattarelli’s campaign has focused intensively on suburban communities like Roxbury, where homeownership rates stand at 73.9%, significantly higher than the national average of 65%. His platform addresses homeowners’ concerns, promising to lower property taxes and manage energy prices while opposing what he describes as overdevelopment spurred by state affordable housing mandates.
State Senator Anthony Bucco, a Republican representative from Morris County, stated, “It’s important for Jack to do well here. If he does, that will give him the votes he needs to get past some of the more Democrat counties like Essex and Hudson.”
Sherrill’s Popularity and Campaign Strategy
Sherrill, who recently garnered 62% of the vote in a competitive Democratic primary, remains confident in her ability to secure votes in Morris County. She has consistently led in statewide polling, although her margin has tightened in recent weeks. The latest poll from Quinnipiac University indicates an 8-point lead over Ciattarelli.
Local Democrats are rallying behind Sherrill, with Shari Seffer, chair of the Montville Democratic Committee, underscoring her candidate’s dedication and accomplishments, such as securing a $2 million federal grant for a new energy-efficient housing development. Seffer plans to canvass the area extensively in order to mobilize support for Sherrill, who positions the race as part of a broader national struggle for democratic values.
Political analyst Dan Cassino from Fairleigh Dickinson University remarked on the potential impact of voter turnout. He noted that while good Democratic turnout in urban centers could bolster Sherrill, a decline in participation there could spell trouble for her campaign. In the 2021 election, only 20% of registered voters in Newark and Paterson cast ballots.
As both campaigns intensify their efforts in Morris County, the outcome here may significantly influence the gubernatorial race. With the stakes high and voter sentiment shifting, all eyes will be on this battleground as election day approaches.
