The political landscape in Texas is shifting as immigration enforcement takes center stage in the state’s upcoming elections. With border crossings significantly declining, candidates are increasingly emphasizing strict enforcement measures. This trend reflects a strategic pivot aimed at energizing conservative voters while potentially limiting broader appeal.
In Edinburg, construction leader Mario Guerrero supports Donald Trump for the 2024 presidential election, citing a drastic increase in border crossings during the previous administration. However, Guerrero, who serves as executive director of the South Texas Builders Association, reveals that federal raids at construction sites have disrupted operations. “The whole workforce, whether people have proper documentation or not, they’re all scared,” he noted. “It’s affecting our businesses a lot.”
As the Texas Senate race unfolds, incumbent John Cornyn faces challenges from Republican candidates such as Ken Paxton, the state’s Attorney General, and Wesley Hunt, a U.S. Representative from Houston. These candidates have voiced strong support for the actions of the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. Their focus on enforcement over immigration reform aims to resonate with voters who prioritize security and robust action against illegal immigration.
The discussion surrounding ICE actions has become a flashpoint in the election. While Republicans advocate for enforcement as a necessary measure to restore order, Democrats and immigration advocates criticize these tactics for straining local communities and economies. This divide is shaping the strategies of both parties as they approach the March 3, 2025, primary.
Amid this backdrop, Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico, both vying for the Democratic Senate nomination, are highlighting the repercussions of intensified enforcement, including labor shortages and civil liberties concerns. They are positioning themselves as challengers to Trump’s immigration policies, suggesting that the GOP’s enforcement-heavy messaging may falter in the general election.
Federal data indicates a significant decline in border crossings, with Border Patrol encounters dropping sharply. Most migrants are being quickly turned back or placed into expedited removal, allowing Republicans to frame this as a policy success. In contrast, ICE apprehensions surged by 132% nationally from January to October 2025 compared to the previous year, shifting the focus of political debate from border crossings to enforcement measures inland.
In response to the heightened scrutiny of ICE tactics, particularly following a tragic incident in Minneapolis where Renee Good was fatally shot during an operation, Texas Republicans have rallied behind Trump’s enforcement agenda. Paxton and Hunt have accused Cornyn of straying from Trump’s hardline approach, referencing his previous skepticism about constructing a massive border wall.
Paxton has taken concrete steps to formalize Texas’ cooperation with federal immigration directives, emphasizing the need for strict enforcement to ensure public safety. He has highlighted operations in the Houston area that led to the detention of 50 individuals in the country illegally. Hunt’s proposed legislation aims to codify Trump’s executive actions, mandating thorough background checks for migrants seeking entry.
Cornyn, facing criticism from his challengers, hosted a meeting with Senate Republican colleagues at the border earlier this month, showcasing new funding for deportations and border security initiatives. Following the Minneapolis incident, he proposed legislation to increase penalties for individuals who assault law enforcement officers, further indicating his commitment to a tough stance on immigration.
Democratic contenders are adopting a contrasting approach, condemning what they perceive as excessive ICE tactics. Talarico has criticized President Joe Biden’s border policies while calling out Trump’s enforcement strategies. He argues for a comprehensive immigration framework that includes additional immigration judges and a reformed asylum system.
Crockett has countered Talarico’s arguments by emphasizing her federal experience and civil rights background. She has introduced legislation aimed at regulating ICE operations and supports technological advancements for border security. Her controversial comparisons of ICE tactics to historical practices have sparked debate, although she defends her statements as necessary for initiating important conversations about immigration.
Public sentiment regarding immigration in Texas appears mixed. Independent polling suggests a disconnect between candidates’ rhetoric on immigration and voter priorities. While concerns about illegal immigration remain significant, many Texans recognize the economic contributions of immigrants. This complex dynamic may influence outcomes beyond the Republican primaries, as economic issues and apprehensions about aggressive enforcement could reshape voter attitudes in the general election.
As the Texas political scene evolves, the crucial question remains how immigration politics will adapt. Political scientist Jeronimo Cortina from the University of Houston notes that the border is no longer the sole focal point of debate. Moving forward, candidates will need to navigate the changing landscape of immigration policy and enforcement strategies as they seek to secure voter support.
