URGENT UPDATE: A new report from accounting firm PwC reveals that U.S. and global box office revenues will not recover to pre-COVID-19 levels until at least 2030. The annual media and entertainment outlook report, released on July 23, 2023, outlines a troubling forecast for the entertainment industry.
According to the report, U.S. total cinema revenue, which peaked at nearly $11.7 billion in 2019, is projected to rise gradually but will only reach $10.8 billion by 2029. This slow recovery is attributed to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 3.9 percent, indicating a significant gap from the pre-pandemic era.
Bart Spiegel, PwC’s global entertainment and media leader, stated, “Unfortunately, this full recovery is unlikely within the forecast period. However, we project that by the end of 2029, the industry will be on the brink of a full rebound.” He suggests that 2030 may mark the year when global box office revenues finally return to their former glory.
The report highlights that U.S. box office revenues are expected to increase from $8.1 billion in 2024 to $8.7 billion in 2025, but will still lag behind pre-pandemic levels. Admissions are forecast to rebound slightly to 778 million in 2025, but this is still well below the 1.3 billion admissions seen in 2019.
In terms of global box office revenue, PwC expects a rise from $29.7 billion in 2024 to $33.5 billion in 2025, but still short of the $39.4 billion recorded in 2019. Spiegel emphasized that “industry revenues are ultimately driven by price times volume” and noted that while ticket prices are rising, the number of admissions is not expected to recover.
The report also underscores the significant impact of recent industry strikes, which have hindered production and reduced the number of major releases. The Writers Guild of America (WGA) and SAG-AFTRA strikes in late 2023 led to fewer anticipated “tentpole” titles, further affecting box office performance.
Despite the bleak outlook, PwC identifies a trend in franchise films driving U.S. box office growth. Studios like Disney are leading the charge with multiple successful blockbusters, including Inside Out 2 and Moana 2. The top five hits in 2024 highlight the dominance of franchise movies, a trend expected to continue into 2025.
As the industry adapts, theater operators are upgrading amenities, which PwC notes is enticing more affluent customers back to cinemas. The report indicates that loyalty programs are on the rise, with membership increasing from 106 million in 2023 to 119 million in 2024.
Looking ahead, the cinema landscape is evolving, with a mix of traditional theatrical releases and streaming options. While streaming giants like Netflix continue to focus on their platforms, studios are returning to a more traditional model of exclusive theatrical windows for major releases to drive ancillary sales.
In conclusion, while the road to recovery for the box office is projected to be slow and challenging, the industry’s resilience remains evident. Authorities and analysts suggest that adaptations to market demands and consumer preferences will ultimately shape the future of cinema. The question now is how quickly these changes will take effect and what new trends will emerge in the coming years.
For cinema enthusiasts and industry stakeholders, the next few years will be critical in determining how the film landscape evolves post-pandemic. Keep an eye on upcoming releases and industry shifts as we approach 2025.
