The 98th Academy Awards on March 15, 2024, are generating significant excitement among bettors, with millions at stake on the outcomes of the prestigious event. According to prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket, the film “Sinners” is favored to win four Oscars, while “One Battle After Another” and “Frankenstein” are each projected to secure three awards.
This year’s Oscars, hosted by comedian Conan O’Brien, will air live on ABC and Hulu. Since the nominees were announced on January 22, bettors have placed tens of millions of dollars on the potential winners across the Academy’s 24 categories. The growing popularity of prediction markets has not only captivated audiences but also drawn scrutiny from regulators and lawmakers.
Key Predictions for Major Categories
The odds for the Best Picture category heavily favor “One Battle After Another,” directed by Paul Thomas Anderson. Bettors place its chances at approximately 67%, with “Sinners” trailing behind at about 24%. More than $10 million has been wagered on this particular category, making it the most contested among bettors.
In the Best Director category, Anderson is again seen as the frontrunner, with odds in the mid-to-high 80% range. Meanwhile, Timothée Chalamet, the lead actor in “Marty Supreme,” is projected to win Best Actor, holding odds in the mid-70s.
For Best Actress, bettors overwhelmingly favor Jessie Buckley, the star of “Hamnet,” with an impressive 88-89% chance of winning. In addition, “Sinners” is also the favorite in the Best Cinematography category, with a 66% probability of taking home the award.
Insights into Other Categories
The competition for Best Production Design appears to heavily favor “Frankenstein,” which boasts odds exceeding 80%. In the Best Adapted Screenplay category, “One Battle After Another” stands out with a remarkable 90% likelihood of winning.
For Best Sound, Apple’s “F1” is expected to emerge victorious, with bettors giving it over an 80% chance. The Best Animated Short Film category is more uncertain, with “Butterfly” leading at around 40%, followed closely by “The Girl Who Cried Pearls.”
In the realm of live-action short films, “Two People Exchanging Saliva” has a slight edge, with a 57% chance on Kalshi and a 34% chance on Polymarket. Other contenders include “Friend of Dorothy” and “The Singers,” each with notable but lower odds.
As for Best Film Editing, “One Battle After Another” maintains a solid lead with a 60% probability. The film “Sinners” is also expected to win both Best Original Score and Best Original Screenplay, each with odds around 85% and 80% respectively.
In the Best Documentary Feature category, “The Perfect Neighbor,” which explores Florida’s “Stand Your Ground” laws, holds a strong chance with odds of approximately 68%. The Best International Feature Film category favors “Sentimental Value” with odds between 67-70%.
As the date approaches, the predictions from Kalshi and Polymarket provide a fascinating glimpse into the anticipated outcomes of the Oscars. The event promises to be a thrilling night for filmmakers, actors, and fans alike, as the final winners are revealed.
