URGENT UPDATE: The stock market is facing significant turbulence as of October 10, 2023, with the S&P 500 suffering its steepest decline since April, plummeting 2.7% after President Trump announced a shocking 100% tariff on China, reigniting trade tensions.
With stocks having surged over 35% since April, investors are now on high alert as October historically witnesses dramatic market shifts. The infamous October 19, 1987 crash, which saw a staggering 20.5% drop in one day, looms in the minds of traders, making this month particularly nerve-racking.
Last year’s October returns were less than favorable, with the S&P 500 down 2.20%, leading many to question whether the index can maintain its momentum as we head into the final months of the year. The past five Octobers have shown mixed results:
- 2024: -0.99%
- 2023: -2.20%
- 2022: 7.99%
- 2021: 6.91%
- 2020: -2.77%
Despite the recent downturn, historical data from the Stock Trader’s Almanac reveals that the S&P 500 has finished higher in October 59% of the time since 1950, with an average return of 0.9%. This statistic has led some to view October declines as potential buying opportunities, especially with November typically being one of the strongest months for stock performance.
“October is a great time to buy,” says Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.
However, investors should remain cautious. The S&P 500’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio currently sits at 22.8, a level that historically signals potential underperformance. Additionally, the ongoing trade war with China could lead to further instability in corporate earnings and revenue growth.
As we approach October 29, when the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 0.25% rate cut with a 98% probability, the implications for the market could be significant. While rate cuts generally support borrowing and corporate profits, concerns over a slowing economy and rising unemployment, currently at 4.3%, could hinder stock recovery.
With October’s volatility unfolding, investors are urged to keep a close watch on market trends and economic indicators. The next few weeks will be critical in determining if October’s historical averages hold true, or if this month will again be marked by dramatic sell-offs.
As always, the market is unpredictable, but the stakes are high. Stay tuned for more updates as the situation develops.
