As the 2026 midterm elections approach, recent polling indicates that while President Donald Trump faces declining approval ratings, the Democratic Party may be encountering even more significant challenges. Although Trump’s approval rating has dipped to around 43 percent with a disapproval rating hovering between 53 and 54 percent, Democrats are failing to capitalize on his vulnerabilities.
Polling data suggests that Trump is the least popular president in his first year, with only one exception—his own performance in 2017. During the lead-up to the 2018 midterms, Trump’s party managed to expand its control of the Senate, despite suffering historic losses in the House, where Democrats gained 41 seats, marking their largest midterm gain since 1974.
In the current landscape, Democrats appear to be struggling to gain traction. A CBS News–YouGov poll released recently reveals Trump is significantly underwater on key issues, particularly the economy, where he faces a 24-point deficit in approval. Only 38 percent of respondents approve of his handling of economic matters, while 62 percent disapprove. An accompanying poll from NBC News supports these findings, indicating that only 34 percent of voters believe Trump has met his economic promises, in stark contrast to the 63 percent who think he has not.
In a similar vein, a Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos poll shows that just 37 percent approve of Trump’s economic management, reflecting widespread discontent due to persistent inflation. This economic dissatisfaction is influencing voter sentiment, leading many to favor the Republican ticket for the upcoming elections.
Despite Trump’s challenges, Democrats are not faring well in public perception either. The CBS News–YouGov poll shows that only 28 percent of voters trust Democrats to manage the economy, compared to 35 percent who trust the Republican Party. This is a stark shift from December 2017, when Democrats held a five-point advantage in public trust regarding economic issues.
On immigration, another pivotal issue, only 26 percent of voters believe Democrats would handle it better than Republicans. According to the NBC News survey, just 22 percent favor Democrats on border security, while 53 percent support the Republicans. The Democratic Party also trails in perceptions of handling crime, with only 24 percent of voters expressing confidence in their approach compared to 46 percent for the GOP.
The generic ballot is another critical indicator for the Democrats, who currently hold a narrow three-point lead over Republicans. This is a significant decline from the eleven-point advantage they enjoyed in the lead-up to the 2018 midterms. As the Republican Party recognizes these trends, they are optimistic about their prospects. James Blair, Trump’s deputy chief of staff for legislative and political affairs, noted the favorable midterm outlook for the GOP on social media.
Trump himself remains buoyant despite the unfavorable polling. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, he claimed, “I have the best poll numbers I’ve ever had,” asserting that his numbers surpass those of any president in many years.
As the political landscape continues to evolve, both parties will need to address these polling trends to mobilize their bases ahead of the pivotal 2026 elections. The dynamics between voter sentiment and party performance will be crucial in shaping the upcoming electoral battles.
