NASA’s Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel has raised concerns about potential delays in the lunar lander version of SpaceX’s Starship, which is crucial for the upcoming Artemis 3 mission scheduled for 2027. During a public meeting on September 19, 2023, panel members expressed doubts that the Human Landing System (HLS) version of Starship will be ready on time. Panelist Paul Hill indicated that the HLS could be “years late,” a conclusion drawn after a recent visit to SpaceX’s Starbase facility and discussions with company executives.
Hill, along with fellow panelists and former astronauts Charlie Precourt and Kent Rominger, noted that a significant challenge lies in demonstrating cryogenic propellant transfer, an essential step for refueling Starship in low Earth orbit before its lunar missions. Progress has been hampered by delays in the development of Starship version 3, which is the first capable of performing such transfers, as well as ongoing enhancements to the Raptor engine used in the spacecraft.
At the same time, SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell acknowledged the challenges associated with propellant transfer, stating during a speech at World Space Business Week on September 16, 2023, that it is a greater concern than the docking of Starships in orbit. “Hopefully it’s not as hard as some of my engineers think it could be,” she remarked.
Despite the potential setbacks, the panel recognized SpaceX’s significant achievements, particularly highlighting the rapid launch cadence of the Falcon 9 rocket, which has been largely driven by the Starlink project. Hill emphasized that this experience contributes to advancements in spacecraft and booster manufacturing, as well as launch preparation and operational efficiency.
The panel previously pointed out safety risks associated with low flight rates in other programs, such as NASA’s Space Launch System and the Orion spacecraft. Hill acknowledged that no competitor, either governmental or private, has matched the combination of manufacturing and flight tempo that SpaceX has achieved, which enhances reliability and reduces costs. Nonetheless, this rapid pace raises concerns about prioritizing development efforts for Starship and the HLS, potentially affecting the Artemis timeline.
Broader concerns regarding the Artemis program were also addressed during the meeting. Panel member Bill Bray noted that while preparations for Artemis 2, set to launch in early 2026, are progressing well, the path forward for Artemis 3 and subsequent missions appears uncertain. He cautioned that any delays in the HLS or Axiom Space’s development of new lunar spacesuits could jeopardize the planned lunar landing and lead to significant postponements.
Bray highlighted the importance of assessing these programs critically in the context of the overall mission schedule to determine what is achievable and when. “These programs remain essential components on the critical path for the success of Artemis 3 and subsequent missions,” he stated. The panel plans to continue its review of the Starship HLS program, including a thorough examination of the design and its cryogenic propellant transfer capabilities, at future meetings.
As the Artemis program moves forward, the need for effective management and timely execution of critical technologies remains paramount to ensure the success of future lunar explorations.
