Vladimir Putin has ordered the largest military draft in Russia in nearly a decade, calling up 135,000 men from ages 18 to 30 for “routine service” from October to December. This decision raises concerns about Russia’s intentions as tensions escalate across Europe. The Kremlin’s latest decree comes amid significant losses in Ukraine, where estimates suggest over one million Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded since the invasion began in 2022.
This autumn draft marks the largest mobilization since 2016 and aims to bolster Russian military ranks to a total of 1.5 million troops. Although the Kremlin claims these conscripts will not be deployed to Ukraine, previous assurances have proven unreliable. Analysts believe that even if fresh recruits are not immediately sent to the front lines, their training would position them for future deployment.
Despite the Kremlin’s narrative of strength and determination, the necessity for such a substantial call-up indicates a military crisis. “Our fighters and commanders go on the attack, and the entire country… is waging this righteous battle,” Putin stated in a televised address. His rhetoric, however, contrasts sharply with the harsh realities of a protracted conflict with no immediate resolution.
Ukraine’s Resilience and NATO’s Response
While Russia highlights minor territorial gains in Donetsk, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asserts that Ukraine’s counter-offensive near Dobropillia is making significant progress. He is also rallying allies to enhance defenses against aerial threats, following instances of Russian drones violating Polish airspace and disrupting operations at Copenhagen Airport for two hours.
In Washington, discussions are underway regarding a potential shift in U.S. policy that may allow Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian territory with American weaponry. Keith Kellogg, an envoy for former President Donald Trump, emphasized the importance of using this capability. “There are no such things as sanctuaries,” he remarked. Meanwhile, Vice-President JD Vance confirmed that long-range Tomahawk missiles are being considered for deployment.
The Kremlin has dismissed these threats, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov asserting that such weaponry will not alter the situation on the ground. Nonetheless, UK Defence Secretary John Healey has issued a warning to Putin, stating, “You will not win. Stop the killing, start the talks, agree to a peace. We will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
Hybrid Warfare and European Security
Russia’s military actions extend beyond Ukraine, as the Kremlin engages in a broader hybrid warfare strategy aimed at testing NATO’s resilience. This includes drone incursions, airspace violations, and cyberattacks, coupled with propaganda efforts to undermine Western unity. Recent incidents have seen Russian drones approach Danish and Norwegian military bases, while also breaching Polish airspace in coordinated swarms.
Zelensky has highlighted these incursions as attempts by Russia to “check Europe’s capacity to protect its skies.” He warned that Moscow is probing European defenses, indicating a potential expansion of conflict if Europe appears weak or divided. Ukrainian officials recently tracked 92 drones heading towards Poland in what was described as a “choreographed” attack, with several drones successfully intercepted.
Western security analysts express concerns that these provocations could pave the way for a more extensive Russian offensive beyond Ukraine. The combination of Russia’s significant draft and military expansion fuels fears that the Kremlin is preparing for a larger confrontation.
As the situation evolves, the implications of Russia’s military call-up and its aggressive maneuvers in Europe remain to be seen. While the Kremlin promotes its narrative of a “righteous battle,” the increasing number of conscripts underscores the challenges facing Putin’s military ambitions. With the ongoing conflict showing no signs of resolution, the European community remains vigilant, prepared to respond to any further aggression from Russia.
