Predicted coronavirus peak in Illinois now moved to mid-May to mid-June

Chicago News USA

CHICAGO- Illinois Gov. J.B. Prtizker released updated models tracking progress as part of the Restore Illinois reopening plan. The Southern and Central regions, which includes counties in the St. Louis Metro area, are on track to meet all of the reopening metrics required to move forward at the end of the 28-day period.

However, the data now shows that the timeframe of plateauing near a peak has been expanded from late April and early May to mid-May into mid-June.

Gov. J.B. Pritzker says daily death and hospital capacity data over the last two and a half weeks have led to the updated predictions.

As of Monday, May 11th, Illinois is reporting 79,007 cases and 3,459 deaths in 98 counties.

Gov. Pritzker explains a later and lower peak is a positive indicator of flattening the curve. It also shows a slowdown of the state’s transmission rate. Illinois officials say the state has the hospital bed and ventilator capacity it needs to reach the peak without overloading the state’s health care system.

Pritzker said lifting all our mitigations at the end of May would likely lead to a second wave of an outbreak in each and every one of our 4 regions.

The Restore Illinois plan allows each of the state’s four regions move at its own pace towards reopening. The North-Central and Central regions are all taking steps forward along with the Southern region.

The Northeast region, which included Chicago, has a positivity rate at 22.3 percent, higher than the 20 percent cap on this metric to move into the next phase.

A requirement to move forward to the next phase is that a region sees no overall increase in hospital admissions for COVID-like illness across a 28-day period.

The North-Central region is at 9.1 percent, the Central region at 6.0 percent, and the Southern region at 10.5 percent.

Region Med/Surge Bed Availability ICU Bed Availability Ventilator Availability
Northeast 17.8% 18.8% 64.3%
North-Central 41.1% 40.6% 64.9%
Central 52.4% 44.2% 74.6%
Southern 45.8% 28% 80.7%

Leave a Reply