The market is currently trading near record highs, but concerns are mounting regarding potential volatility as the U.S. approaches a critical tariff deadline. Megan Horneman, Chief Investment Officer at Verdence Capital Advisors, which manages $4.1 billion in assets, has expressed apprehension about what she perceives as excessive complacency among investors as the August 1, 2023, trade deadline approaches.
In an interview on CNBC’s “Fast Money,” Horneman warned, “This market is pricing in the perfect situation.” She highlighted the looming tariff issues alongside uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies and noted that current market conditions appear technically overbought. Horneman emphasized that if expectations for interest rate cuts dissipate, coupled with unresolved tariff implications, the market could face a valuation correction.
Horneman’s insights also extend to the state of growth stocks, particularly those in the technology sector, which she believes are exhibiting overbought characteristics. “These are things that we think might upset the rally that we’re seeing here,” she stated, reflecting her cautious stance on the market’s near-term prospects.
Despite her short-term reservations, Horneman maintains a long-term bullish outlook. She views market pullbacks as opportunities, particularly in international stocks, which she identifies as a key strategy amid potential market weakness. “I’d warn that right now, they’re expensive from a valuation perspective [but] cheap compared to the U.S.,” she noted, adding that international stocks have been undervalued for too long, suggesting a rotation may be underway.
Investors navigating this uncertain environment should prioritize proper allocation, according to Horneman. This advice aligns with sentiments from other market analysts, including “Fast Money” trader Guy Adami, who expressed concerns about the role of retail investors in driving recent market gains. “Just in terms of valuation, things have gotten a tad frothy here,” he remarked during the same broadcast.
As of last Friday, the S&P 500 had closed at record highs each day of the previous week, climbing 16% over the past three months. The tech-heavy Nasdaq has experienced even greater gains, surging 21% in the same period.
As the market continues to react to evolving economic conditions, investors are urged to remain vigilant and consider the implications of potential shifts in both trade policy and monetary policy.
